2015-10-02

Wall Street Journal

After more than a year of seeking to isolate Russian President Vladimir Putin, European leaders are finding they need his cooperation to solve not one but all of the Continent’s most pressing crises.
President Vladimir Putin arrived for a meeting on human-rights issues at the Kremlin on Thursday.
From the conflict in Ukraine, to the region’s refugee crisis and now the threat of escalating war in Syria, the mercurial Russian leader is central to helping calm the turmoil that is threatening Europe’s enclave of security.
As a cease- fire in eastern Ukraine enters its second month, Mr. Putin and the leaders of France, Germany and Ukraine are set to meet in Paris on Friday to push for a lasting peace that would end Europe’s sanctions on Russia for its support of rebels opposed to the government in Kiev. But Mr. Putin’s decision to deploy airstrikes in Syria is overshadowing the progress in Ukraine, displaying the unpredictability he has used the past two years to keep Europe on edge.
Mr. Putin will meet separately with French President François Hollande and then German Chancellor Angel Merkel, followed by a meeting of the three leaders plus Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. French officials say the mood will be tense, possibly spilling over into the talks over Ukraine.
“Nothing allows me to say that the atmosphere is particularly good,” a senior French official said. “We will see what the influence of the events in Syria will be on the Ukraine negotiations.”
In airstrikes this week, the Russian military has bombed areas outside Islamic State strongholds, including one primarily held by Westernbacked rebels, U. S. officials say. Such strikes could further destabilize Syria, driving more people to seek refuge in Europe. “There’s going to be an escalation of the conflict,” said Maha Yahya, a Syria expert at the Carnegie Middle East Center. “We will see a surge in refugees either leaving Syria or moving from one place to another within Syria.”
Confronted with the migration crisis, Europe has hoped Mr. Putin would use Russia’s sway over Syrian President Bashar al- Assad to stop his use of “barrel bombs” on civilian populations, a prime cause of the exodus from Syria.
Some European nations, including Italy and Greece, have stressed that Russia is integral to any political solution to the Syria crisis. “It is impossible to achieve peace without Russia involved,” Italian Premier Matteo Renzi said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday.
Friday’s summit will focus on a looming challenge to the Minsk accord: local elections that Ukraine’s breakaway eastern provinces in the Donbas region have threatened to hold without the approval of Kiev.
Jean Asselborn, the foreign minister of Luxembourg, said the message had already been passed clearly to Moscow: If the rebels go ahead with their own elections, it would be a huge blow to the Minsk peace process—and could revive discussions within the bloc about tighter sanctions on Russia.

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