Russia never abided by September’s Minsk peace accords that demanded a withdrawal of its troops from the region, because it insisted it had none. But the latest escalation looks like a deliberate affront. It may reflect Mr Putin’s way of negotiating with the West. Escalating a conflict and then agreeing not to go any further in exchange for concessions has long been one of his favoured tactics. “Putin likes to open talks by putting a knife on the table first,” notes Kirill Rogov, a political analyst in Moscow. The West has all but dropped Russia’s annexation of Crimea as an issue, turning it into a fait accompli. Dmitri Trenin, head of the Carnegie Moscow Centre, also suggests that Ukraine may be tempted to try to recapture more rebel territory—in which case Russia might respond by trying to overthrow the government in Kiev. Here.
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